Friday, November 28, 2014

Friday Follies 28 NOV 14

Someone asked me why I think Bill Cosby is a rapist. I asked them given what we know, what are the odds that he's being falsely accused? They didn't know, so I calculated it for them. To be "fair" to Cosby lets only count the 14 women who were willing to accuse him under oath. Also to be "fair" to him, let's assume that the rate of False Accusations of Rape is the 40% that some Men's Activists claim it is. (I'm not endorsing this number, just trying to be as fair as possible.) To compute the odds that he is being falsely accused we would need to multiply .40 times .40 a total of thirteen times. This gives us 0.00000268 which we multiply times 100 to give  .000268 which is the percentage chance that Cosby is being falsely accused. Or to put it another way, given 14 independent accusations of rape and a 40% chance that any one of them are false, there is a 99.9997% chance that Bill Cosby is a rapist. I understand that math is hard for some people, so feel free to read this as many times as you wish. And if you continue to defend him I'll feel free to give you as many sideyes as I wish. Because now you know. 

And until next we meet, may all your potatoes be sweet (and dusted with cinnamon.)
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